By Hans Schmitz, Technical Assistance Specialist
Indiana Ag Nutrient Alliance
Now that planting season is among us, and the pastures are greening and growing once again, the Climate Prediction Center has refreshed its outlooks. Indiana shows warmer than normal temperatures through the end of June, with equal chances for above normal, normal, or below normal precipitation.
With the last drought monitor update in March removing extreme drought from the state of Indiana, a swath of north central Indiana remains in severe drought, but improvements are likely in the month of April, as wetter than normal conditions are predicted in the one month outlook. The seasonal outlook through the end of June keeps this swath as improving but persisting in drought. At this point, that area is suffering the effects of long term drought, where individual precipitation events are unlikely to provide full hydrologic relief. In fact, Indiana has now had some portion of the state in at least moderate drought conditions for 45 weeks, a record dating back to May 20 of last year, when an area in NW Indiana reaching from Warren to Lake Counties was introduced.
The uncertainty in precipitation over the three month period is due to the expected transition from La Nina conditions in the El Nine Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to ENSO-neutral conditions for the summer. This largest and most regularly monitored driver of jet patterns across North America gives little predictability when it transitions, and ENSO-neutral conditions have the weakest predictive capabilities, depending on the season. Given the outlook throughout the period for warmer temperatures, and the April wetter than normal signal, those who plant early will want to watch the planting windows and check for the certainty of the forecast. Many of the most recent events verified at rainfall totals less than their potential, which could allow for fieldwork sooner than expected.